The Arab Spring and the House of Saud
Risks for Business and Politics
Thursday March 31, 2011, 16.00 BST / 11.00 EDT
Could Saudi Arabia face convulsive political change? As risks rise in nearby Bahrain, Yemen, Syria and Jordan, Riyadh will become increasingly concerned about the possibility that the 'Arab Spring' could galvanise its own Shia minority -- or liberal-minded reformists. The government has attempted to ward off possible unrest by unveiling a 93 billion dollar spending package and announcing municipal elections, the first stage of which will take place on April 23. However, political activists regard the elections as little more than a gimmick, and other governments in the region have found it insufficient to throw money at the population to ward off possible unrest. For now, there no groundswell of support for reform, easing pressure on the government to make more substantive concessions. In the medium term, the real risk to stability may well arise from a succession crisis in the House of Saud. King Abdallah is 87 years old, and his ostensible successor, Interior Minister Prince Nayef, is 78. Investors' and interlocutors' concerns are rising as tensions and uncertainties emerge within the ruling elite.
In this special Open Conference Call, Oxford Analytica Senior Global Advisor Philip Mudd and panellists from our global network of experts will evaluate scenarios that could precipitate a crisis in Saudi Arabia -- and the key challenges faced by investors and governments:
- What are the possible ripple effects of persistent instability in Bahrain?
- Is 'managed' political change the route to reform in Saudi Arabia?
- Under what circumstances might Saudi troops deploy to Yemen or another crisis-hit country?
- How resilient is the Saudi economy to unrest elsewhere in the Middle East?
- Will government spending pledges fuel inflation and derail growth prospects?
- What are the implications for global oil and gas markets?
